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Common sense isn't.
Why did TVA expect their three wind turbines would produce some six
million kilowatt-hours per year?
We still don't really know.
January 5, 2003
The following information was requested under the Freedom of
Information Act, on April 7, 2002.
The following response was released by TVA on December 2, 2002.
It was essentially a restatement of the obvious. Note that 660 kw x 3 x
8760 hours x 0.35 = six million kilowatt-hours, and "volume of
generation" is unusual terminology.
"The calculation of the expected volume
of generation used by TVA was the capacity of the machines
times the number of machines
times the number of hours in
a year
times an
estimated average annual capacity factor
or 660kw x 3 x 8760 x
0.35. Also enclosed is a document titled "
Questions
and Answers on TVA's Proposed Wind Power Plant" which contains
a question and answer regarding the capacity factor for
the first year of operation and how that compared to the goal of 6
million kilowatt-hours per year."
After the plant was operating, it became clear that it would not
produce as much power as TVA advertised (and continues to advertise).
In fact, of the
few data
points that TVA has released, the maximum capacity factor has been
about 33% (averaged over two or three month periods). Not once has it
exceeded the previously "expected"
average
of 35%, and the long-term average is closer to 20%.
How and why did TVA so badly over-predict the "expected" capacity
factor? Understanding this was the reason for the FOIA request. Did TVA
actually analyze the historical weather data, which they said was a
reason for selecting the site? Did they make mistakes? Were they
intentionally over-optimistic to make the project look good?
Unfortunately, we still don't know.
The
attached document
(below) was obviously not responsive to the request. The
capacity factor "answer" says TVA still did not yet know
the capacity factor. One can also calculate a 19.5% average capacity
factor based on 3.9 million kwh in 14 months (November 2000 through
December 2001), but 19.5% is obviously far below the assumed 35% stated
above. Also, the document, although not dated, was clearly published
after the requested information.
Therefore, the document was clearly not the basis for the questioned
statement, and was not the requested information. Nevertheless, it had
enough interesting information to be worth publishing. Some of it
is very similar to questions in the environmental assessment for the
wind power plant expansion and elsewhere, but other parts are not found
elsewhere on the Web, to my knowledge. I believe it was previously used
as a handout at the public meetings on the plant expansion
Environmental Assessment, so it is actually information that was
previously released by TVA (contrary to the intent of the FOIA).
Noteworthy are:
only 2-3 jobs would be created;
estimated
$10,000 per turbine annual maintenance cost
for 20-25 years; TVA overall average
system capacity
factor was about 58%; nearly
an acre is cleared
per turbine; project cost is ~
$30 million for 20 MW
(rated); Green Power Switch
breakeven is
"expected" to take 20 years.
Beginning of TVA Document
Questions and Answers on TVA's Proposed Wind Power Plant
Background
Information
In April 2000, TVA initiated Green Power Switch (GPS), a program
designed to offer TVA customers the option of purchasing electricity
generated from renewable sources with relatively low environmental
impacts. These renewable sources are wind, solar, and methane gas
from landfills and wastewater treatment plants. During the first
18 months of the program, customers of 12 local distributors across the
TVA power service area had the option to purchase green power.
Evaluations of the program during this initial pilot phase showed that
it was successful and the amount of participation exceeded early
projections.
TVA began generating electricity from wind in October 2000 at a small
wind facility on Buffalo Mountain in Anderson County, Tennessee.
This wind facility was the first commercial wind generation in the
southeastern United States. It consists of three wind turbines
with a maximum generation capacity of 2 megawatts. .
In order to meet the demand created by the GPS Program, TVA needs to
increase its supply of electricity generated from renewable sources such
as wind. Because the operation of the existing Buffalo Mountain
Wind facility confirmed that electricity could be generated by wind in
the Southeast, TVA proposes to add about 20 megawatts (MW) of wind
generation to its system at either the existing site on Buffalo
Mountain in Anderson County, Tennessee, or a new site on Stone Mountain
in Johnson County, Tennessee.
A draft environmental assessment has been prepared on TVA's proposal to
acquire 20 MW of wind energy on either Buffalo or Stone Mountain and has
been published on the TVA website at
http://www.tva.gov/environment/reports/index.htm (archive, 2003).
Printed copies of the entire draft environmental assessment are
available for viewing at most area public libraries and courthouses in
Johnson County and the Oliver Springs, Tennessee area.
- Has TVA contracted construction
and operation of the wind power plant? If so, who was contracted?
No. A developer/contractor will not be selected until the environmental
review is complete and the location selected.
- Will the city, state, or county
incur any costs to construct or operate the proposed plant?
Describe these costs, if any. Not that we are aware of at
this time.
- How many new
jobs will be created locally to operate and maintain the wind
turbines? Describe these positions. TVA estimates
that 2-3 new jobs would be created by the wind power plant. These
jobs would be technical jobs for electricians or mechanics trained to
maintain these machines.
- Did TVA (or its contractor)
forecast increased city or county revenue from tourism? If so,
provide the amount and basis for tourism revenue projections.
No. TVA did not conduct any such studies. However, two articles
at the registration table are available for your information: "The
Effect of Wind Energy Development on State and Local Economies" and
"Examples of Benefits seen in Minnesota".
- What are the siting criteria
(federal, state, and local) for the wind turbines and what government
agencies regulate and approve the siting process? There are
no federal or State of Tennessee regulations specific to the siting of
wind turbines. Regulations affecting endangered species,
wetlands, and cultural resources can affect the siting process.
- What alternative sites are being
evaluated? Provide results from the site selection process.
The two sites being considered are the Stone Mountain site in Johnson
County, Tennessee and the Buffalo Mountain site in Anderson County,
Tennessee. The site selection process is described in the draft
environmental assessment (available on the TVA web site at
http://www.tva.gov/environment/reports/index.htm, archive, 2003),
which has additional information on both sites.
- What are the requirements for
minimum distance from the wind turbines to the nearest residents?
TVA is not aware of any industry or regulatory requirements for such a
minimum distance. However, since the plant is a generating
station, all TVA safety regulations and requirements for high voltage
equipment would apply.
- Will TVA perform baseline noise
surveys if requested by area residents? TVA will evaluate
the need for noise surveys based on the distance of residents' homes
from the wind farm. Please refer to the Draft
Environmental
assessment (archive, 2003) page 4-41 for additional details.
- What regulatory agency is
responsible for issuing the operating permit for the wind turbines?
There will be no specific operating permit needed for the wind
facility. However, TVA coordinates with appropriate State and
local agencies on the siting and operation of all generating facilities,
regardless of fuel type. The FAA is responsible for issuing
permits on lighting the wind turbines.
- Has the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) approved the towers and what are the lighting
requirements? When a site is selected, TVA will request
the FAA to conduct an Aeronautical Study of the site. Since the
local airport is 3 to 4 miles from Stone Mountain we do not anticipate
any impact from the turbines on the airport traffic. The FAA will
determine lighting requirements. Each wind turbine at Buffalo
Mountain has one white, medium-intensity flashing light on top of the
turbine. There are no lights on the blades. The FAA would
make the final decision as to whether all turbines require lights.
- How will the wind turbines
comply with the Ridgetop Protection Laws in Johnson County and the State
of North Carolina? None of the turbines at the proposed
site on Stone Mountain will be in North Carolina. However,
restrictions included in the Johnson County Ridgetop Protection Law
indicate the law does not apply to "equipment used for the transmission
of electricity, communications, or other public utilities."
- How much
electricity did TVA's Buffalo Mountain Wind Plant produce during the
first year of operation? What was the capacity factor (time the
plant actually operates) for the first year and how did it compare to
the goal of 6 million kilowatt hours? The Buffalo Mountain
site has produced 3,882,310-kilowatt hours of electricity from November
2000 through December 2001. As is common with any new facility,
numerous start-up problems as well as completion of the distribution
line and installation of communications equipment resulted in a
significant amount of down time during the first several months of
planned operation. The plant has been operating since April 2001
and will not have a complete year of operating data until the end of
March 2002. Therefore, we will not know the capacity factor for
the first year of operation at Buffalo Mountain until after this date
when the annual generation is recorded.
- What is the
expected life span of the proposed wind turbines and what are the annual
operation and maintenance costs? The average life
expectancy of wind turbines is between 20 and 25 years. Average
annual maintenance costs per turbine for a 20-megawatt plant (13 to 16
turbines) could be as much as $10,000.
- How much
electricity did TVA produce in FY-2001 (total from all sources)?
What was TVA's total capacity in FY2001 and what was the overall
capacity factor? TVA produced over 156 billion kilowatt-hours of
electricity in FY2001. TVA's winter capacity is 30,365
megawatts. TVA's overall capacity factor, or the amount of time
that all TVA generating units including hydro, pumped storage,
combustion turbines, nuclear plants, fossil plants, wind turbines,
landfill gas facilities and solar sites, were actually operating in 2001
was approximately 58 percent.
- What are the projections for
percent growth in TVA electrical demand over the next ten years?
TVA is projecting an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent in electrical
demand over the next 10 years (2002-2012).
- The Department of Energy has
stated a goal to increase wind-generated electricity production in the
U.S. from 0.1 percent to 5percent by the year 2020. What are TVA's
goals for increasing wind power generating capacity? TVA
plans to add 20 megawatts of wind generation by October 2003 to support
the Green Power Switch (GPS) Program. Absent an approved national
renewable portfolio standard, any plans for additional wind generation
in the TVA service territory will depend on the demand for the GPS
Program and available sites.
- Will TVA consider constructing
the energy storage plant without the wind turbines? No. TVA
will not construct the energy storage plant at any of the locations
described in the Environmental Assessment without the wind
turbines. TVA may construct similar energy storage plants at these
or other locations in the future to meet other power system needs.
- Will TVA consider constructing
the proposed wind turbines in phases? For example, the first phase
might consist of two or three turbines operated for a period of time to
determine community acceptance and assess performance.
This was the approach used that resulted in the three-turbine
demonstration on Buffalo Mountain. As a result of that phase, we
have determined that the wind in portions of the Valley is sufficient,
studied noise level and impacts on wildlife, etc. and have also
determined that the cost of expanding at the rate of a few turbines at a
time is very expensive. The cost of power is reduced if
infrastructure costs such as substations, transmission lines, and roads
as well as the erection costs is spread over the greatest number of
turbines at the time of plant construction.
- Can the turbines be limited to
sites with previous industrial development and not placed on an
undeveloped site such as Stone Mountain? Unfortunately
there are very few mountaintops in the TVA service territory with
previous industrial development with suitable wind.
- How much area
will be required for each wind turbine? Approximately 200
feet x 200feet would have to be cleared for each turbine to allow for
assembly and erection by crane during construction. The actual
fenced-in space around each turbine during operation would be 60 feet x
60 feet or less. Area cleared for construction would be restored
as nearly as possible to pre-construction conditions.
- How does the elevation of Stone
Mountain compare to Buffalo Mountain? Stone is between
4,300 feet and 4,650 feet above sea level. Buffalo has an
elevation of 3,200 feet to 3,400 feet.
- There was a huge wind turbine in
the Boone, North Carolina area that caused many problems. Are
these turbines similar? There was a first generation wind
turbine near Boone N.C. in the early 1980's. It was huge, loud and
interfered with all sorts of communications including TV
reception. Over the last 20 years the technology has changed
significantly. Current day wind turbines are a proven technology
without these problems.
- Why was Stone Mountain chosen as
a possible site? Stone Mountain was chosen as a potential
site because of its high wind speeds, which average 19-20 miles an hour,
road access, and presence of nearby transmission lines. TVA has
been collecting wind data on Stone Mountain for the past 8 - 9 months,
and also collected wind data during the 1980s. It is ranked as a
Class 4 site which is considered quite good.
- Who are the landowners that TVA
is working with and what is TVA paying them for their property?
TVA is negotiating with Coal Creek Mining & Manufacturing Company
for the Buffalo Mountain site and Danny Herman for the Stone Mountain
site. The terms of the contracts are business confidential.
- If TVA were to proceed with this
project when would construction occur? Some site
preparation such as clearing could begin in late 2002 as well as any
modifications to the roads. Actual construction on site such as
foundation work for the turbines would most likely begin in early 2003
after the weather warms up. TVA proposed plans call for bringing
the facility on line by October 2003.
- Which roads would be used during
construction? If Stone Mountain were selected as the site,
the road used for construction would likely be either Grover Reece/Stone
Mountain Road, or Bulldog Road and the unnamed road to Vaught
Gap. The final selection will be determined after a decision is
made based on the vendor and equipment transport needs. The
existing access road at the Buffalo Mountain site will be improved if
that site is selected.
- Who would own the wind facility
and what are the tax impacts for the county? TVA has issued
a Request for Proposal for wind energy. We have accepted
proposals for both 1) the exclusive rights to purchase wind energy from
a facility not owned by TVA and 2) proposals for the turnkey engineering
and construction of a wind energy facility owned by TVA. TVA will
evaluate all proposals and make a decision in the Spring of 2002 once a
final decision on whether to construct the wind facility has been
made. TVA pays in-lieu-of-taxes to state and local
governments. The tax equivalent payments are based on the
previous years power sales revenue and TVA owned property in each
state. Most of this money is paid directly to state governments
and then redistributed to local governments based upon a formula
established by the state.
- Where would the substation be
and where would the project connect to the TVA grid? A
substation will be located at the mountaintop of either site with the
power being connected either to TVA or the local power distributor grid.
- What is the
estimated cost of the turbines? This will not be determined
until the evaluation is completed. However, we estimate the
project to cost less than $30 million.
- Would TVA expand the site at a
later date and add more turbines? Future expansion of TVA
wind generation facilities will primarily depend on the future demand
for the Green Power Switch program.
- How many years
of generated power is needed just to pay for the wind turbine and
attached equipment, or what percent of life is needed to pay off debt?
TVA's investment in wind facilities is supported by the Green Power
Switch (GPS) revenue that also supports the investment in the other GPS
power supplies such as solar and landfill gas energy generation
plants. The GPS revenue collected is not segregated or allocated
by supply-type. However, the price of the GPS power ($4 per 150
kilowatt hours) was set to “pay off” all costs, including debt, incurred
to support the entire GPS supply portfolio over a 20-year period.
- How is this project going to
affect the Stone Mountain watershed? As described in the
draft environmental assessment, with the implementation of appropriate
best management practices, no significant impacts to area watersheds,
including groundwater, are expected.
- Where will the energy storage
facility be located? The sites being considered for the
energy storage facility at both Buffalo Mountain and Stone Mountain will
be in the valleys, closer to the point of interconnection with the
power grid.
- What does TVA consider before
choosing possible future sites for these wind power-generating systems?
The site selection process considers the following factors. The
strength of the wind resource, availability of the land, proximity to
the electrical system, access to the site, and site-specific
environmental impacts. TVA has taken into consideration a number
of environmental issues-air quality, socioeconomic resources
(population, housing, etc.), groundwater, cultural resources, vegetation
and wildlife, threatened and endangered species, visual resources,
noise, land use, water supply, etc.
- What is the minimum elevation
required for these possible sites? There is no minimum
elevation. Wind strength generally increases with elevation, but
site-specific circumstances such as the presence of nearby ridges can
also affect wind conditions. However, we have learned from
experience that the wind resource below 3,000 feet is usually not strong
enough to economically support a wind generation facility, given the
current technology available.
- From your experience to date
with the turbines, how many hours per day on average have the turbines
produced the amount of power expected? TVA is still
gathering data on the operation of the wind turbines installed on
Buffalo Mountain, which are still going through the normal first-year
shakedown phase. However, we expect energy production sufficient
for up to 4,600 households from a wind generation facility on Stone
Mountain and up to 3,000 households for the same size facility on
Buffalo Mountain. The difference in energy production estimates is
due to the difference in the strength of the wind at the two sites.
- Why were the landowners that
surround the two sites not informed at that time TVA first began
investigating the sites for possible wind generation locations?
TVA has been mapping the wind resources in the Valley for many
years. As sites are identified as having potential, local
landowners are approached to allow the placement of meteorological
towers to further measure the wind resource. It is only after it
is determined that a site has significant wind resource potential and
selected as a possible location for a wind generation facility, that the
general public is notified of a potential TVA action.
- If the Buffalo Mountain site is
selected for the expansion, will the new turbines be constructed next to
the existing three that we can see from Oak Ridge now, or elsewhere?
If Buffalo Mountain is selected, the new turbines will be placed near
the existing ones.
- Does a map exist that shows all
the locations where wind is strong enough to generate electricity from
these turbines, and does the government or private buyers already have
the land expecting it to be a long-term investment? The
Department of Energy produced a broad scale map of the wind resource
across the U.S. This map is available at
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas (archive, 2002).
We are not aware of speculative land purchases for wind farms in the
TVA area.
- Will TVA compensate landowners
directly adjacent to the wind turbines for loss of property value?
TVA does not compensate landowners who have property adjacent to power
plants, reservoirs, transmission lines, etc.
- How proven is the Regenesys
technology? TVA is building a Regenesys plant in
Mississippi to demonstrate the technology in the United States.
This technology has been demonstrated in a pilot project in the United
Kingdom.
- Instead of expanding the grid
for more power use, why aren't you stressing conservation?
TVA's investment in wind generation or the promotion of GPS does not
encourage the increased use of electricity or expand the grid.
TVA's operation of a wind generation plant will offset power generated
from other sources.
- What are the physical
characteristics of the wind turbines? The characteristics
will depend on the turbine vendor selected, but in general, they are as
follows:
- Tower height 65 or 80 meters (216 or 262 feet)
- Blade length 32 or 38 meters (105 or 125 feet)
- Blade tip speed 68 or 80 meters per second (150
or 180 mph)
- Rotor speed range 11 to 20 rpm
End
of TVA Document
Quote of the moment |
The manly part is to do with might and main what you can do. |
~ Ralph Waldo Emerson, The Conduct of Life. Wealth.
~ |
Thanks to Highland Media
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Common sense isn't.
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